Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 15:15 • Estadio de O Couto
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.76 (league 1.36) 1.13 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
51.2% 23.5% 24.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
1 - 0
9.8%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Mérida AD
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ourense CF 0 5.6% 6.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
1 9.8% 11.1% 6.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.1% 5.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOurense CFMérida AD
Played55
Form20%73%
Attack43%100%
Defense14%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ourense CF Mérida AD
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins45%8%26%67%18%43%
Draws18%42%30%17%27%22%
Loses36%50%43%17%55%35%

Form: Ourense CF: DDLLLDDLDWDWWWLDLWLWLLL • Mérida AD: WLLLLWLWDWWDWDWLLLWDDWW

League goals

Metric Ourense CF Mérida AD
HATHAT
GF total17825231033
GF avg1.50.71.11.90.91.4
GA total141529121830
GA avg1.31.31.31.01.61.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOurense CFMérida AD
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%65%78%70%
1.530%43%48%39%
2.59%17%17%17%
3.54%0%0%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOurense CFMérida AD
HATHAT
Clean sheets448617
Failed to score268145

Penalties

MetricOurense CFMérida AD
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricOurense CFMérida AD
Wins32
Draws22
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-23-00-2
Biggest losses1-33-02-43-0
Goals For4232
Goals Against3343

Model comparison

MetricOurense CFMérida AD
Form21%79%
Att30%70%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h0%100%
Goals40%60%
Total37.2%62.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Mérida AD

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ Unibet
Draw2.88 @ Bet365
Away3.66 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.80 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.40 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.62 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ourense CF = 1.76 (league 1.36), Mérida AD = 1.13 (league 1.04)

Mérida AD
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ourense CF 0 5.6% 6.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
1 9.8% 11.1% 6.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.1% 5.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.2% · Draw 23.5% · Away win 24.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1