Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 17:00 •
Vogtlandstadion
Expected Goals
1.72 (league 1.68)
0.64 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% | 23.1% | 13.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.2%
2 - 0
13.9%
1 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Einheit Wernigerode | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Plauen | 0 | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.1% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Plauen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 56 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Plauen +5.2, Einheit Wernigerode -12.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Plauen
vs
Einheit Wernigerode
Elo gapPlauen +56
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2961.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.7
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.2 | 1470.5 |
| Form Elo | 1503.4 | 1466.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.3 | 1482.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1412 | 1482.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1555.5 | 1423.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.2 | -12.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Plauen last-5 Elo change: +5.2; Einheit Wernigerode last-5 Elo change: -12.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 44% | 38% |
| Defense | 81% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| Wins | 67% | 50% | 58% | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Draws | 17% | 25% | 21% | 23% | 18% | 21% |
| Loses | 17% | 25% | 21% | 46% | 45% | 46% |
PlauenWLWDWWDLLLWDWWDWWWWWLDWW
Einheit WernigerodeLWLLLWWDLLWWLDDWLDWDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 18 | 38 | 19 | 15 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 8 | 14 | 22 | 24 | 19 | 43 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 71% | 79% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 17% | 46% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 4% | 17% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Plauen | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 63% | 37% |
| Total | 69.3% | 30.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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