Wed, Feb 25 2026 • 17:45 • New Balance Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.44 (league 1.84) 2.18 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.4% 19.0% 33.5%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.0%
2 - 1
6.4%
1 - 2
5.7%
Score & goals probability table
Borussia Dortmund
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4%
1 2.4% 5.2% 5.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0%
2 2.9% 6.4% 7.0% 5.1% 2.8% 1.2%
3 2.4% 5.2% 5.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0%
4 1.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6%
5 0.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtalantaBorussia Dortmund
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack47%53%
Defense53%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

74%
FT probability

3.5+

53%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atalanta Borussia Dortmund
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins50%40%44%60%25%44%
Draws25%0%11%20%25%22%
Loses25%60%44%20%50%33%

Form: Atalanta: LWDWWWLLL • Borussia Dortmund: DWWLWDLLW

League goals

Metric Atalanta Borussia Dortmund
HATHAT
GF total641012921
GF avg1.50.81.12.42.32.3
GA total571251217
GA avg1.31.41.31.03.01.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtalantaBorussia Dortmund
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%67%78%78%
1.544%33%67%67%
2.511%22%44%22%
3.50%11%44%22%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtalantaBorussia Dortmund
HATHAT
Clean sheets123202
Failed to score134112

Penalties

MetricAtalantaBorussia Dortmund
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricAtalantaBorussia Dortmund
Wins32
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-34-02-4
Biggest losses2-34-00-24-1
Goals For2344
Goals Against3424

Model comparison

MetricAtalantaBorussia Dortmund
Form46%54%
Att47%53%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h13%88%
Goals33%67%
Total39.7%60.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Borussia Dortmund

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.26 @ 1xBet
Draw3.88 @ Pinnacle
Away3.25 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.32 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ 10Bet
No2.51 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atalanta = 2.44 (league 1.84), Borussia Dortmund = 2.18 (league 1.37)

Borussia Dortmund
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4%
1 2.4% 5.2% 5.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0%
2 2.9% 6.4% 7.0% 5.1% 2.8% 1.2%
3 2.4% 5.2% 5.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0%
4 1.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6%
5 0.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.4% · Draw 19.0% · Away win 33.5%

vtt 12 , vtd1