League One — England
Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 15:00 • Vale Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.48) 1.28 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.3% 28.3% 43.1%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.4%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Luton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Port Vale 0 10.5% 13.4% 8.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.3% 13.1% 8.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%
2 5.0% 6.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
3 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPort ValeLuton
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack45%45%
Defense45%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Port Vale Luton
HATHAT
Played151631171633
Wins13%25%19%53%25%39%
Draws33%19%26%29%13%21%
Loses53%56%55%18%63%39%

Form: Port Vale: LDDLLLLWWWDDLLLDLLDLLLWLLWLDLDW • Luton: WWLWLWLLWDLLWWDLWDDDLWWLWDLLWWLLD

League goals

Metric Port Vale Luton
HATHAT
GF total141125251742
GF avg0.90.70.81.51.11.3
GA total202343152540
GA avg1.31.41.40.91.61.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePort ValeLuton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.548%74%73%67%
1.523%35%39%33%
2.53%19%12%15%
3.53%6%3%3%
4.53%3%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPort ValeLuton
HATHAT
Clean sheets3587411
Failed to score8816369

Penalties

MetricPort ValeLuton
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total15

Streaks

MetricPort ValeLuton
Wins32
Draws23
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-24-00-3
Biggest losses0-35-00-25-0
Goals For5243
Goals Against3535

Model comparison

MetricPort ValeLuton
Form42%58%
Att50%50%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h50%50%
Goals60%40%
Total49.2%50.8%

Advice: Double chance : Port Vale or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.50 @ Betfair
Draw3.53 @ Pinnacle
Away2.18 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.15 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Port Vale = 0.98 (league 1.48), Luton = 1.28 (league 1.12)

Luton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Port Vale 0 10.5% 13.4% 8.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.3% 13.1% 8.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%
2 5.0% 6.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
3 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.3% · Draw 28.3% · Away win 43.1%

vtt 2 , vtd1