Sun, Mar 8 2026 • 17:00 •
Estadio Ciudad de Lucena
Expected Goals
3.41 (league 1.39)
0.35 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 79.2% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
best score tips
3 - 0
15.4%
2 - 0
13.5%
4 - 0
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Castilleja | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ciudad de Lucena | 0 | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.4% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 13.1% | 4.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 9.0% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 7% |
| Attack | 100% | 10% |
| Defense | 70% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 13 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 91% | 31% | 58% | 25% | 9% | 17% |
| Draws | 9% | 38% | 25% | 25% | 36% | 30% |
| Loses | 0% | 31% | 17% | 50% | 55% | 52% |
Ciudad de LucenaWLWLWDWWDDWDWDDWWLWLWWWW
CastillejaDDLLLWLLLLDLDDWWDWLLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 16 | 43 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 5 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 21 | 35 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 42% | 48% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 21% | 22% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 8% | 4% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 50.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 50.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-3 | 7-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Castilleja |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 92% | 8% |
| Att | 92% | 8% |
| Def | 73% | 27% |
| Poisson Distribution | 91% | 9% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 89% | 11% |
| Total | 87.4% | 12.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.27 @ Betano
Draw5.53 @ Pinnacle
Away13.00 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.93 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.79 @ Marathonbet
No1.44 @ William Hill
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League standings
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