Thu, Mar 12 2026 • 17:45 • Stadion Poznan
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.25 (league 1.61) 0.97 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.3% 28.6% 28.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Shakhtar Donetsk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lech Poznan 0 10.9% 10.6% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.6% 13.2% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.4% 8.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLech PoznanShakhtar Donetsk
Played55
Form87%67%
Attack57%50%
Defense86%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

80%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lech Poznan Shakhtar Donetsk
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins75%50%63%25%100%63%
Draws25%0%13%50%0%25%
Loses0%50%25%25%0%13%

Form: Lech Poznan: WLLWDWWW • Shakhtar Donetsk: DWWLWWWD

League goals

Metric Lech Poznan Shakhtar Donetsk
HATHAT
GF total87154913
GF avg2.01.81.91.02.31.6
GA total268347
GA avg0.51.51.00.81.00.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLech PoznanShakhtar Donetsk
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%63%88%63%
1.563%25%63%25%
2.513%13%13%0%
3.513%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLech PoznanShakhtar Donetsk
HATHAT
Clean sheets213213
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricLech PoznanShakhtar Donetsk
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricLech PoznanShakhtar Donetsk
Wins13
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-22-00-2
Biggest losses—3-21-2—
Goals For4223
Goals Against1322

Model comparison

MetricLech PoznanShakhtar Donetsk
Form57%43%
Att53%47%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h0%100%
Goals25%75%
Total50.0%50.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.65 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.45 @ Betano
Away2.80 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.96 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.74 @ Pinnacle
No2.16 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lech Poznan = 1.25 (league 1.61), Shakhtar Donetsk = 0.97 (league 1.18)

Shakhtar Donetsk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lech Poznan 0 10.9% 10.6% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.6% 13.2% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.4% 8.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.3% · Draw 28.6% · Away win 28.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1