Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 07:00 • Machida Gion Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.59 (league 1.32) 0.89 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
53.1% 25.2% 21.1%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.3%
1 - 1
11.9%
2 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
Fagiano Okayama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Machida Zelvia 0 8.4% 7.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.3% 11.9% 5.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.6% 9.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 5.6% 5.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMachida ZelviaFagiano Okayama
Played55
Form40%27%
Attack62%23%
Defense38%23%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.610 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

68%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Machida Zelvia Fagiano Okayama
HATHAT
Played151631171431
Wins47%50%48%41%29%35%
Draws13%31%23%24%21%23%
Loses40%19%29%35%50%42%

Form: Machida Zelvia: LWLWWWDWDLLLWLLDWDLWWWWWWWWDLDD • Fagiano Okayama: WLWDLDWLWWLDLLDLWDDLWWLLWWWLLLD

League goals

Metric Machida Zelvia Fagiano Okayama
HATHAT
GF total222547161228
GF avg1.51.61.50.90.90.9
GA total161733132033
GA avg1.11.11.10.81.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMachida ZelviaFagiano Okayama
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%65%61%65%
1.552%29%26%26%
2.519%6%3%6%
3.53%3%0%6%
4.50%3%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMachida ZelviaFagiano Okayama
HATHAT
Clean sheets56117411
Failed to score4376612

Penalties

MetricMachida ZelviaFagiano Okayama
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricMachida ZelviaFagiano Okayama
Wins83
Draws12
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-42-00-3
Biggest losses0-35-31-25-0
Goals For3423
Goals Against3525

Model comparison

MetricMachida ZelviaFagiano Okayama
Form60%40%
Att73%27%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h62%38%
Goals56%44%
Total62.2%37.8%

Advice: Double chance : Machida Zelvia or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.66 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.00 @ 188Bet
Away5.60 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.11 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.78 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Machida Zelvia = 1.59 (league 1.32), Fagiano Okayama = 0.89 (league 1.11)

Fagiano Okayama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Machida Zelvia 0 8.4% 7.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.3% 11.9% 5.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.6% 9.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 5.6% 5.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.1% · Draw 25.2% · Away win 21.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1