Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 05:00 • Denka Big Swan Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.32) 1.15 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.1% 29.0% 37.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.4%
0 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
Fagiano Okayama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Albirex Niigata 0 11.0% 12.6% 7.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.6% 13.4% 7.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.1% 7.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlbirex NiigataFagiano Okayama
Played55
Form7%7%
Attack12%12%
Defense59%35%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.42 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.411 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Albirex Niigata Fagiano Okayama
HATHAT
Played161632171532
Wins13%13%13%41%27%34%
Draws44%13%28%24%20%22%
Loses44%75%59%35%53%44%

Form: Albirex Niigata: DLLDDLDLWDLDWLDLWLWLLLLLLDLLLLDL • Fagiano Okayama: WLWDLDWLWWLDLLDLWDDLWWLLWWWLLLDL

League goals

Metric Albirex Niigata Fagiano Okayama
HATHAT
GF total161329161228
GF avg1.00.80.90.90.80.9
GA total252954132134
GA avg1.61.81.70.81.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlbirex NiigataFagiano Okayama
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.566%84%59%66%
1.522%53%25%25%
2.53%25%3%6%
3.50%6%0%6%
4.50%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlbirex NiigataFagiano Okayama
HATHAT
Clean sheets3257411
Failed to score65116713

Penalties

MetricAlbirex NiigataFagiano Okayama
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricAlbirex NiigataFagiano Okayama
Wins13
Draws22
Losses63

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-12-00-3
Biggest losses0-43-01-25-0
Goals For3223
Goals Against4425

Model comparison

MetricAlbirex NiigataFagiano Okayama
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def61%39%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h15%85%
Goals38%62%
Total43.8%56.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fagiano Okayama

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.71 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away2.88 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.46 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.60 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.04 @ 188Bet
No1.83 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Albirex Niigata = 1.06 (league 1.32), Fagiano Okayama = 1.15 (league 1.11)

Fagiano Okayama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Albirex Niigata 0 11.0% 12.6% 7.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.6% 13.4% 7.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.1% 7.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.1% · Draw 29.0% · Away win 37.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1