Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 04:30 • Toyota Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.15 (league 1.32) 2.14 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.0% 19.9% 37.6%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.2%
2 - 1
6.8%
1 - 2
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
Cerezo Osaka
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nagoya Grampus 0 1.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
1 2.9% 6.3% 6.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.2% 6.8% 7.2% 5.2% 2.8% 1.2%
3 2.3% 4.9% 5.2% 3.7% 2.0% 0.9%
4 1.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5%
5 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
Played55
Form53%33%
Attack26%42%
Defense68%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nagoya Grampus Cerezo Osaka
HATHAT
Played161632171532
Wins38%19%28%41%27%34%
Draws31%25%28%35%27%31%
Loses31%56%44%24%47%34%

Form: Nagoya Grampus: LDLLDLWWLLWLLWDDDWWLDWDLLLLDWWDL • Cerezo Osaka: WLLDDLDWLWDLLWWWLWDWDWLDWLDDWDLL

League goals

Metric Nagoya Grampus Cerezo Osaka
HATHAT
GF total241438242549
GF avg1.50.91.21.41.71.5
GA total222547182947
GA avg1.41.61.51.11.91.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%78%81%88%
1.531%44%38%50%
2.513%16%22%9%
3.50%9%9%0%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
HATHAT
Clean sheets437314
Failed to score358156

Penalties

MetricNagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricNagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
Wins23
Draws32
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-22-5
Biggest losses0-44-01-23-0
Goals For3345
Goals Against4423

Model comparison

MetricNagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
Form62%38%
Att38%62%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total52.0%48.0%

Advice: Double chance : Nagoya Grampus or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.82 @ 1xBet
Draw3.65 @ 188Bet
Away2.53 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.11 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ Unibet
No2.35 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nagoya Grampus = 2.15 (league 1.32), Cerezo Osaka = 2.14 (league 1.11)

Cerezo Osaka
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nagoya Grampus 0 1.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
1 2.9% 6.3% 6.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.2% 6.8% 7.2% 5.2% 2.8% 1.2%
3 2.3% 4.9% 5.2% 3.7% 2.0% 0.9%
4 1.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5%
5 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.0% · Draw 19.9% · Away win 37.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1