J1 League — Japan
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 07:00 • Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.74 (league 1.33) 1.16 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.5% 30.8% 45.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
17.3%
0 - 0
14.9%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
Machida Zelvia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0 14.9% 17.3% 10.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
1 11.1% 12.9% 7.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia
Played55
Form60%40%
Attack39%33%
Defense83%61%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sanfrecce Hiroshima Machida Zelvia
HATHAT
Played151732161632
Wins47%53%50%50%50%50%
Draws20%24%22%13%31%22%
Loses33%24%28%38%19%28%

Form: Sanfrecce Hiroshima: WWDWDLWWLLLLWWWWWLDWLLWWDWLWDDDW • Machida Zelvia: LWLWWWDWDLLLWLLDWDLWWWWWWWWDLDDW

League goals

Metric Sanfrecce Hiroshima Machida Zelvia
HATHAT
GF total142337232548
GF avg0.91.41.21.41.61.5
GA total121022161733
GA avg0.80.60.71.01.11.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%59%78%63%
1.528%9%50%28%
2.59%0%19%6%
3.53%0%3%3%
4.50%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia
HATHAT
Clean sheets58136612
Failed to score448437

Penalties

MetricSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia
Wins58
Draws32
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-43-00-4
Biggest losses1-22-10-35-3
Goals For2434
Goals Against2235

Model comparison

MetricSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida Zelvia
Form60%40%
Att54%46%
Def70%30%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h100%0%
Goals75%25%
Total59.8%40.2%

Advice: Double chance : Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.27 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ 188Bet
Away3.50 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.28 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.90 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sanfrecce Hiroshima = 0.74 (league 1.33), Machida Zelvia = 1.16 (league 1.10)

Machida Zelvia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0 14.9% 17.3% 10.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
1 11.1% 12.9% 7.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.5% · Draw 30.8% · Away win 45.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1