J1 League — Japan
Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 05:00 • City Light Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.33) 1.17 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.0% 27.2% 33.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
1 - 0
11.0%
0 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
Cerezo Osaka
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fagiano Okayama 0 8.6% 10.0% 5.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
1 11.0% 12.9% 7.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.1% 8.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
4 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
Played55
Form13%27%
Attack100%100%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fagiano Okayama Cerezo Osaka
HATHAT
Played171633171633
Wins41%25%33%41%25%33%
Draws24%25%24%35%25%30%
Loses35%50%42%24%50%36%

Form: Fagiano Okayama: WLWDLDWLWWLDLLDLWDDLWWLLWWWLLLDLD • Cerezo Osaka: WLLDDLDWLWDLLWWWLWDWDWLDWLDDWDLLL

League goals

Metric Fagiano Okayama Cerezo Osaka
HATHAT
GF total161329242650
GF avg0.90.80.91.41.61.5
GA total132235183149
GA avg0.81.41.11.11.91.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.561%67%82%88%
1.524%24%36%52%
2.53%6%21%9%
3.50%6%9%0%
4.50%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
HATHAT
Clean sheets7411314
Failed to score6713156

Penalties

MetricFagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricFagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
Wins33
Draws22
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-34-22-5
Biggest losses1-25-01-23-0
Goals For2345
Goals Against2523

Model comparison

MetricFagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
Form33%67%
Att27%73%
Def59%41%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h7%93%
Goals33%67%
Total35.7%64.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Cerezo Osaka

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.44 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.55 @ 188Bet
Away2.20 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.72 @ 188Bet
No2.26 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.03 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fagiano Okayama = 1.29 (league 1.33), Cerezo Osaka = 1.17 (league 1.10)

Cerezo Osaka
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fagiano Okayama 0 8.6% 10.0% 5.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
1 11.0% 12.9% 7.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.1% 8.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
4 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.0% · Draw 27.2% · Away win 33.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1