J3 League — Japan
Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 04:00 • Sunpro Alwin Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.87 (league 1.39) 0.88 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.7% 33.5% 33.8%
best score tips
0 - 0
17.4%
0 - 1
15.4%
1 - 0
15.0%
Score & goals probability table
Tochigi SC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 17.4% 15.4% 6.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.0% 13.3% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.5% 5.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMatsumoto YamagaTochigi SC
Played55
Form40%87%
Attack33%67%
Defense73%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Tochigi SC
HATHAT
Played141327141428
Wins43%23%33%50%36%43%
Draws29%31%30%14%29%21%
Loses29%46%37%36%36%36%

Form: Matsumoto Yamaga: DLDWDLWLWWLDWLLWDLLWLWDDDLW • Tochigi SC: WLLDWLDLWLDWDWLDLWLLLWWWDWWW

League goals

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Tochigi SC
HATHAT
GF total171330181230
GF avg1.21.01.11.30.91.1
GA total161531131427
GA avg1.11.21.10.91.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMatsumoto YamagaTochigi SC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%63%71%61%
1.533%30%18%29%
2.57%15%14%4%
3.50%4%4%4%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMatsumoto YamagaTochigi SC
HATHAT
Clean sheets64104711
Failed to score358358

Penalties

MetricMatsumoto YamagaTochigi SC
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total40

Streaks

MetricMatsumoto YamagaTochigi SC
Wins23
Draws31
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-12-3
Biggest losses0-53-11-24-1
Goals For3343
Goals Against5324

Model comparison

MetricMatsumoto YamagaTochigi SC
Form32%68%
Att33%67%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h15%85%
Goals20%80%
Total33.0%67.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Tochigi SC

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.93 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away2.63 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.28 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.68 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Unibet
No1.96 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Matsumoto Yamaga = 0.87 (league 1.39), Tochigi SC = 0.88 (league 1.12)

Tochigi SC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 17.4% 15.4% 6.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.0% 13.3% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.5% 5.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.7% · Draw 33.5% · Away win 33.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1