J3 League — Japan
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 04:00 • Toho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.41) 2.02 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
35.4% 21.0% 40.7%
best score tips
1 - 2
7.8%
1 - 1
7.7%
2 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fukushima United 0 2.0% 4.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6%
1 3.8% 7.7% 7.8% 5.2% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.6% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.2% 4.5% 4.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6%
4 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFukushima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack69%38%
Defense23%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fukushima United Matsumoto Yamaga
HATHAT
Played141529151328
Wins29%40%34%40%23%32%
Draws43%13%28%33%31%32%
Loses29%47%38%27%46%36%

Form: Fukushima United: DLWWLWDWLDWLLDWDLLLWDLDWDWWLL • Matsumoto Yamaga: DLDWDLWLWWLDWLLWDLLWLWDDDLWD

League goals

Metric Fukushima United Matsumoto Yamaga
HATHAT
GF total311748181331
GF avg2.21.11.71.21.01.1
GA total312859171532
GA avg2.21.92.01.11.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFukushima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%83%71%64%
1.555%59%32%29%
2.521%31%7%14%
3.57%17%0%4%
4.50%7%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFukushima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
HATHAT
Clean sheets2356410
Failed to score145358

Penalties

MetricFukushima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricFukushima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Wins22
Draws13
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-23-00-3
Biggest losses1-47-10-53-1
Goals For4233
Goals Against4753

Model comparison

MetricFukushima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Form54%46%
Att64%36%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h75%25%
Goals60%40%
Total54.8%45.2%

Advice: Double chance : Fukushima United or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.03 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.58 @ Pinnacle
Away2.33 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.03 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.68 @ 188Bet
No2.20 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fukushima United = 1.87 (league 1.41), Matsumoto Yamaga = 2.02 (league 1.09)

Matsumoto Yamaga
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fukushima United 0 2.0% 4.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6%
1 3.8% 7.7% 7.8% 5.2% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.6% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.2% 4.5% 4.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6%
4 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 35.4% · Draw 21.0% · Away win 40.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1