J3 League — Japan
Sun, Nov 2 2025 • 05:00 • Shiranami Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.90 (league 1.39) 0.71 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.3% 21.1% 13.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.9%
2 - 0
13.2%
1 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kagoshima United 0 7.3% 5.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.9% 9.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
2 13.2% 9.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.4% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKagoshima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Played55
Form47%7%
Attack44%13%
Defense56%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.42 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Kagoshima United Matsumoto Yamaga
HATHAT
Played171633161632
Wins65%38%52%38%19%28%
Draws18%44%30%31%25%28%
Loses18%19%18%31%56%44%

Form: Kagoshima United: DLWWDWDWDDLWWLWDDLWDWWWWDWWWLLDWW • Matsumoto Yamaga: DLDWDLWLWWLDWLLWDLLWLWDDDLWDLLLL

League goals

Metric Kagoshima United Matsumoto Yamaga
HATHAT
GF total402363191332
GF avg2.41.41.91.20.81.0
GA total171835191837
GA avg1.01.11.11.21.11.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKagoshima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%70%66%69%
1.552%30%28%28%
2.530%6%6%13%
3.512%0%0%3%
4.59%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKagoshima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
HATHAT
Clean sheets64106410
Failed to score1453811

Penalties

MetricKagoshima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricKagoshima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Wins42
Draws23
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-01-33-00-3
Biggest losses0-33-00-53-1
Goals For6333
Goals Against3353

Model comparison

MetricKagoshima UnitedMatsumoto Yamaga
Form88%13%
Att78%22%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h71%29%
Goals58%42%
Total68.8%31.3%

Advice: Double chance : Kagoshima United or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.65 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.86 @ Pinnacle
Away5.00 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.89 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.96 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Kagoshima United = 1.90 (league 1.39), Matsumoto Yamaga = 0.71 (league 1.12)

Matsumoto Yamaga
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kagoshima United 0 7.3% 5.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.9% 9.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
2 13.2% 9.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.4% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.3% · Draw 21.1% · Away win 13.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1