J3 League — Japan
Sun, Nov 16 2025 • 05:00 • Sunpro Alwin
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.40) 1.18 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.1% 30.4% 45.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.7%
0 - 0
14.2%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
Osaka
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 14.2% 16.7% 9.9% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
1 11.0% 12.9% 7.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
2 4.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMatsumoto YamagaOsaka
Played55
Form20%80%
Attack42%75%
Defense33%83%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.62 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Osaka
HATHAT
Played171835181735
Wins35%22%29%67%41%54%
Draws29%22%26%17%24%20%
Loses35%56%46%17%35%26%

Form: Matsumoto Yamaga: DLDWDLWLWWLDWLLWDLLWLWDDDLWDLLLLLLW • Osaka: DWWWLWWLWWLWWWWDWDDDLWLDLLWLDWWWLWW

League goals

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Osaka
HATHAT
GF total201636321850
GF avg1.20.91.01.81.11.4
GA total212142141630
GA avg1.21.21.20.80.90.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMatsumoto YamagaOsaka
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%69%74%60%
1.529%31%34%20%
2.56%14%20%6%
3.50%3%6%0%
4.50%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMatsumoto YamagaOsaka
HATHAT
Clean sheets65119514
Failed to score3811459

Penalties

MetricMatsumoto YamagaOsaka
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricMatsumoto YamagaOsaka
Wins24
Draws33
Losses62

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-37-10-3
Biggest losses0-53-10-32-0
Goals For3373
Goals Against5332

Model comparison

MetricMatsumoto YamagaOsaka
Form20%80%
Att36%64%
Def20%80%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total36.2%63.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Osaka

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.55 @ Betano
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.15 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.34 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.73 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ Pinnacle
No1.81 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Matsumoto Yamaga = 0.77 (league 1.40), Osaka = 1.18 (league 1.12)

Osaka
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 14.2% 16.7% 9.9% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
1 11.0% 12.9% 7.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
2 4.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.1% · Draw 30.4% · Away win 45.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1