Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 18:30 • Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.06) 0.48 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.4% 28.2% 13.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
21.6%
0 - 0
16.0%
2 - 0
14.6%
Score & goals probability table
Almagro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Patronato 0 16.0% 7.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.6% 10.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 14.6% 7.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 6.6% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPatronatoAlmagro
Played55
Form40%20%
Attack8%33%
Defense92%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

50%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Patronato Almagro
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins56%19%38%38%6%22%
Draws31%38%34%38%44%41%
Loses13%44%28%25%50%38%

Form: Patronato: WDLLDDDLWWLDWDWLWDDWWLWLWLWDDLWD • Almagro: DLLLWDWDDLDWWWDWDDLLLLDLWLDDDDLL

League goals

Metric Patronato Almagro
HATHAT
GF total181230121224
GF avg1.10.80.90.80.80.8
GA total7182592130
GA avg0.41.10.80.61.30.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePatronatoAlmagro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%56%59%72%
1.519%19%13%19%
2.513%3%3%3%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPatronatoAlmagro
HATHAT
Clean sheets10414819
Failed to score66128513

Penalties

MetricPatronatoAlmagro
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricPatronatoAlmagro
Wins23
Draws34
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-33-10-1
Biggest losses0-13-10-13-1
Goals For3332
Goals Against2323

Model comparison

MetricPatronatoAlmagro
Form67%33%
Att20%80%
Def86%14%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h33%67%
Goals43%57%
Total53.8%46.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Patronato or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.05 @ William Hill
Draw3.05 @ 188Bet
Away5.30 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.39 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.66 @ 188Bet
No1.53 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Patronato = 1.35 (league 1.06), Almagro = 0.48 (league 0.67)

Almagro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Patronato 0 16.0% 7.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.6% 10.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 14.6% 7.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 6.6% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.4% · Draw 28.2% · Away win 13.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1