Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 21:00 • Estadio George Capwell Banco del Austro
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.75 (league 1.31) 1.48 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.8% 26.5% 54.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.0%
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 2
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
El Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Emelec 0 10.8% 16.0% 11.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6%
1 8.1% 11.9% 8.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 3.0% 4.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Played55
Form47%60%
Attack29%43%
Defense50%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Emelec El Nacional
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins29%43%36%36%29%32%
Draws36%21%29%14%36%25%
Loses36%36%36%50%36%43%

Form: Emelec: LLDLWDDDWLWLLLWDDDWLWWWDWLWL • El Nacional: LDDLLLWLLWDWDWWLLDWLDDLLWWWL

League goals

Metric Emelec El Nacional
HATHAT
GF total101626131932
GF avg0.71.10.90.91.41.1
GA total161834181937
GA avg1.11.31.21.31.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEmelecEl Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%75%64%75%
1.521%32%32%36%
2.54%7%18%14%
3.54%7%0%7%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets527437
Failed to score64106410

Penalties

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total52

Streaks

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Wins33
Draws32
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-42-00-3
Biggest losses0-42-00-34-1
Goals For2433
Goals Against4234

Model comparison

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Form44%56%
Att40%60%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution35%65%
H2h29%71%
Goals33%67%
Total36.2%63.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or El Nacional

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.77 @ 188Bet
Draw4.15 @ Betano
Away6.60 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.90 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ 188Bet
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Emelec = 0.75 (league 1.31), El Nacional = 1.48 (league 1.04)

El Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Emelec 0 10.8% 16.0% 11.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6%
1 8.1% 11.9% 8.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 3.0% 4.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.8% · Draw 26.5% · Away win 54.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1