Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 21:00 • Estadio Bellavista de Ambato
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.31) 1.16 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
21.2% 31.1% 47.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.6%
0 - 0
16.0%
1 - 1
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
Libertad
0 1 2 3 4 5
Macara 0 16.0% 18.6% 10.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.7% 12.5% 7.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 3.6% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMacaraLibertad
Played55
Form73%53%
Attack44%38%
Defense88%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Macara Libertad
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins21%36%29%57%21%39%
Draws36%36%36%0%64%32%
Loses43%29%36%43%14%29%

Form: Macara: WWDDDLLLDLLLDWDLWDWLLLDDWWDW • Libertad: WDLWWDLDWWLLDLLDWDWWWDLWDWDL

League goals

Metric Macara Libertad
HATHAT
GF total111728241640
GF avg0.81.21.01.71.11.4
GA total161228191635
GA avg1.10.91.01.41.11.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMacaraLibertad
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%71%79%82%
1.525%14%39%29%
2.57%7%18%11%
3.54%7%7%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMacaraLibertad
HATHAT
Clean sheets358235
Failed to score5510336

Penalties

MetricMacaraLibertad
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total25

Streaks

MetricMacaraLibertad
Wins23
Draws31
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-44-11-2
Biggest losses1-44-31-42-0
Goals For2443
Goals Against4443

Model comparison

MetricMacaraLibertad
Form58%42%
Att54%46%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total55.0%45.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Macara or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.90 @ 10Bet
Draw3.52 @ 1xBet
Away4.43 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.80 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.90 @ 188Bet
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Macara = 0.67 (league 1.31), Libertad = 1.16 (league 1.04)

Libertad
0 1 2 3 4 5
Macara 0 16.0% 18.6% 10.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.7% 12.5% 7.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 3.6% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 21.2% · Draw 31.1% · Away win 47.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1