Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 21:30 • Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.16 (league 1.32) 0.87 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.2% 30.1% 27.5%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.2%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
Mushuc Runa SC
0 1 2 3 4 5
El Nacional 0 13.1% 11.5% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
1 15.2% 13.3% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.8% 7.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEl NacionalMushuc Runa SC
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack38%54%
Defense54%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric El Nacional Mushuc Runa SC
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins36%27%31%40%0%21%
Draws14%33%24%20%21%21%
Loses50%40%45%40%79%59%

Form: El Nacional: LDDLLLWLLWDWDWWLLDWLDDLLWWWLL • Mushuc Runa SC: WLWDLDDWLLWLLLLLLLDDLLLLWLWLD

League goals

Metric El Nacional Mushuc Runa SC
HATHAT
GF total131932231033
GF avg0.91.31.11.50.71.1
GA total182341262450
GA avg1.31.51.41.71.71.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEl NacionalMushuc Runa SC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%76%79%86%
1.531%38%24%52%
2.517%17%7%21%
3.50%10%3%7%
4.50%0%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEl NacionalMushuc Runa SC
HATHAT
Clean sheets437404
Failed to score6511246

Penalties

MetricEl NacionalMushuc Runa SC
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total25

Streaks

MetricEl NacionalMushuc Runa SC
Wins31
Draws22
Losses37

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-33-1
Biggest losses0-34-00-53-1
Goals For3341
Goals Against3453

Model comparison

MetricEl NacionalMushuc Runa SC
Form56%44%
Att42%58%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h93%7%
Goals67%33%
Total61.8%38.2%

Advice: Double chance : El Nacional or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ William Hill
Draw3.45 @ Unibet
Away3.27 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.97 @ SBO
Under 2.51.91 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ 188Bet
No2.14 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): El Nacional = 1.16 (league 1.32), Mushuc Runa SC = 0.87 (league 1.04)

Mushuc Runa SC
0 1 2 3 4 5
El Nacional 0 13.1% 11.5% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
1 15.2% 13.3% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.8% 7.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.2% · Draw 30.1% · Away win 27.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1