Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 00:30 • Choctaw Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.67 (league 1.53) 3.04 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.1% 15.8% 56.6%
best score tips
1 - 3
7.1%
1 - 2
7.0%
2 - 3
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
Real Monarchs
0 1 2 3 4 5
North Texas 0 0.9% 2.7% 4.2% 4.2% 3.2% 2.0%
1 1.5% 4.6% 7.0% 7.1% 5.4% 3.3%
2 1.3% 3.8% 5.8% 5.9% 4.5% 2.7%
3 0.7% 2.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 1.5%
4 0.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNorth TexasReal Monarchs
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack29%53%
Defense59%76%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric North Texas Real Monarchs
HATHAT
Played131326131326
Wins31%46%38%46%38%42%
Draws23%23%23%31%31%31%
Loses46%31%38%23%31%27%

Form: North Texas: LWLDWDLWWWWLLDLWLWLDLLWDDW • Real Monarchs: WDLWDDLWDWDWLLDDLWWLWDWLWW

League goals

Metric North Texas Real Monarchs
HATHAT
GF total202040232447
GF avg1.51.51.51.81.81.8
GA total282250172239
GA avg2.21.71.91.31.71.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNorth TexasReal Monarchs
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%88%88%88%
1.542%50%54%46%
2.523%35%31%12%
3.54%15%8%4%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNorth TexasReal Monarchs
HATHAT
Clean sheets123123
Failed to score224123

Penalties

MetricNorth TexasReal Monarchs
Scored (total | %)16 | 76.19%21 | 67.74%
Missed (total | %)5 | 23.81%10 | 32.26%
Total2131

Streaks

MetricNorth TexasReal Monarchs
Wins42
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-44-10-4
Biggest losses0-45-11-34-0
Goals For3444
Goals Against4534

Model comparison

MetricNorth TexasReal Monarchs
Form44%56%
Att36%64%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution35%65%
H2h71%29%
Goals69%31%
Total48.5%51.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Monarchs

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.09 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.76 @ Pinnacle
Away2.10 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.54 @ Unibet
No2.54 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): North Texas = 1.67 (league 1.53), Real Monarchs = 3.04 (league 1.30)

Real Monarchs
0 1 2 3 4 5
North Texas 0 0.9% 2.7% 4.2% 4.2% 3.2% 2.0%
1 1.5% 4.6% 7.0% 7.1% 5.4% 3.3%
2 1.3% 3.8% 5.8% 5.9% 4.5% 2.7%
3 0.7% 2.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 1.5%
4 0.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.1% · Draw 15.8% · Away win 56.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1