Virsliga — Latvia
Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 13:00 • Tukuma pilsētas stadions
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.33 (league 1.66) 1.47 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.0% 25.2% 40.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 1
8.9%
1 - 2
8.7%
Score & goals probability table
Super Nova
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tukums 0 6.0% 8.9% 6.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
1 8.1% 11.9% 8.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 7.9% 5.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTukumsSuper Nova
Played55
Form47%20%
Attack43%64%
Defense43%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.615 | 3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tukums Super Nova
HATHAT
Played151530151530
Wins33%13%23%20%13%17%
Draws27%20%23%47%27%37%
Loses40%67%53%33%60%47%

Form: Tukums: LDLDWLLLLDDWDLLLLDWLWLWLLWDLLW • Super Nova: LWLDLDDLDLWDDDDWLLLDLWLDDLWLLL

League goals

Metric Tukums Super Nova
HATHAT
GF total201333191736
GF avg1.30.91.11.31.11.2
GA total253156232548
GA avg1.72.11.91.51.71.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTukumsSuper Nova
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%80%77%80%
1.540%53%27%43%
2.57%30%10%17%
3.50%13%7%10%
4.50%7%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTukumsSuper Nova
HATHAT
Clean sheets426426
Failed to score4711347

Penalties

MetricTukumsSuper Nova
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total35

Streaks

MetricTukumsSuper Nova
Wins11
Draws24
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-34-00-3
Biggest losses2-56-22-64-1
Goals For3343
Goals Against5664

Model comparison

MetricTukumsSuper Nova
Form70%30%
Att40%60%
Def65%35%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h62%38%
Goals60%40%
Total57.3%42.7%

Advice: Double chance : Tukums or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.23 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.65 @ 188Bet
Away3.05 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.20 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.43 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tukums = 1.33 (league 1.66), Super Nova = 1.47 (league 1.27)

Super Nova
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tukums 0 6.0% 8.9% 6.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
1 8.1% 11.9% 8.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.4% 7.9% 5.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.0% · Draw 25.2% · Away win 40.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1