Virsliga — Latvia
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 13:00 • RFS Jana Skredela sporta komplekss Dabigais segum
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.16 (league 1.67) 0.84 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.2% 30.3% 26.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.7%
0 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
FS Jelgava
0 1 2 3 4 5
Super Nova 0 13.5% 11.3% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.7% 13.2% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.2% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSuper NovaFS Jelgava
Played55
Form20%33%
Attack75%83%
Defense0%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Super Nova FS Jelgava
HATHAT
Played151631161531
Wins20%13%16%44%7%26%
Draws47%25%35%25%33%29%
Loses33%63%48%31%60%45%

Form: Super Nova: LWLDLDDLDLWDDDDWLLLDLWLDDLWLLLL • FS Jelgava: DLDLWWLDWWDLWDLLWDLLLLWLLDDLWLD

League goals

Metric Super Nova FS Jelgava
HATHAT
GF total191837231033
GF avg1.31.11.21.40.71.1
GA total232750182240
GA avg1.51.71.61.11.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSuper NovaFS Jelgava
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%81%58%87%
1.526%45%32%32%
2.510%16%10%10%
3.56%10%6%0%
4.50%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSuper NovaFS Jelgava
HATHAT
Clean sheets426224
Failed to score34731013

Penalties

MetricSuper NovaFS Jelgava
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total51

Streaks

MetricSuper NovaFS Jelgava
Wins12
Draws42
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-34-11-4
Biggest losses2-64-12-33-0
Goals For4344
Goals Against6433

Model comparison

MetricSuper NovaFS Jelgava
Form38%63%
Att47%53%
Def41%59%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h25%75%
Goals40%60%
Total41.5%58.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FS Jelgava

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.26 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.74 @ Pinnacle
Away1.95 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.04 @ SBO
Under 2.51.84 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.93 @ 188Bet
No1.93 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Super Nova = 1.16 (league 1.67), FS Jelgava = 0.84 (league 1.25)

FS Jelgava
0 1 2 3 4 5
Super Nova 0 13.5% 11.3% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.7% 13.2% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.2% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.2% · Draw 30.3% · Away win 26.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1