Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 11:00 • Stadionā Esplanāde
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.72 (league 1.67) 1.23 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.1% 23.7% 27.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
Super Nova
0 1 2 3 4 5
BFC Daugavpils 0 5.2% 6.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 9.0% 11.1% 6.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.7% 9.5% 5.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.4% 5.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
Played55
Form47%13%
Attack50%50%
Defense20%20%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric BFC Daugavpils Super Nova
HATHAT
Played161733161733
Wins63%18%39%19%12%15%
Draws6%41%24%50%29%39%
Loses31%41%36%31%59%45%

Form: BFC Daugavpils: WLLWWLDWWDLLLDWLDDLWLDWWDLWWWLLWD • Super Nova: LWLDLDDLDLWDDDDWLLLDLWLDDLWLLLLDD

League goals

Metric BFC Daugavpils Super Nova
HATHAT
GF total291948201838
GF avg1.81.11.51.31.11.2
GA total233255242751
GA avg1.41.91.71.51.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%76%76%79%
1.536%42%24%42%
2.518%18%9%15%
3.56%15%6%9%
4.50%9%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
HATHAT
Clean sheets538437
Failed to score235358

Penalties

MetricBFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
Scored (total | %)9 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total95

Streaks

MetricBFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
Wins31
Draws24
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-34-00-3
Biggest losses1-75-12-64-1
Goals For4343
Goals Against7564

Model comparison

MetricBFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
Form78%22%
Att50%50%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h62%38%
Goals50%50%
Total58.2%41.8%

Advice: Double chance : BFC Daugavpils or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.05 @ Bet365
Draw4.01 @ Pinnacle
Away3.80 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.25 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.71 @ Pinnacle
No2.38 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): BFC Daugavpils = 1.72 (league 1.67), Super Nova = 1.23 (league 1.25)

Super Nova
0 1 2 3 4 5
BFC Daugavpils 0 5.2% 6.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 9.0% 11.1% 6.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.7% 9.5% 5.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.4% 5.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.1% · Draw 23.7% · Away win 27.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1