Virsliga — Latvia
Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 11:00 • Tukuma pilsētas stadions
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.66) 1.13 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.2% 27.6% 32.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.0%
1 - 0
11.5%
0 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
FS Jelgava
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tukums 0 9.1% 10.3% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
1 11.5% 13.0% 7.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.3% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 3.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTukumsFS Jelgava
Played55
Form47%33%
Attack29%35%
Defense65%65%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tukums FS Jelgava
HATHAT
Played171835181735
Wins35%17%26%39%6%23%
Draws24%22%23%33%41%37%
Loses41%61%51%28%53%40%

Form: Tukums: LDLDWLLLLDDWDLLLLDWLWLWLLWDLLWWLLDW • FS Jelgava: DLDLWWLDWWDLWDLLWDLLLLWLLDDLWLDDDDD

League goals

Metric Tukums FS Jelgava
HATHAT
GF total241438251338
GF avg1.40.81.11.40.81.1
GA total303262202545
GA avg1.81.81.81.11.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTukumsFS Jelgava
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%77%60%86%
1.540%49%34%34%
2.56%29%9%9%
3.50%14%6%0%
4.50%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTukumsFS Jelgava
HATHAT
Clean sheets448325
Failed to score491341014

Penalties

MetricTukumsFS Jelgava
Scored (total | %)3 | 75.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 25.00%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricTukumsFS Jelgava
Wins22
Draws22
Losses44

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-34-11-4
Biggest losses2-56-22-33-0
Goals For3344
Goals Against5633

Model comparison

MetricTukumsFS Jelgava
Form58%42%
Att45%55%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h36%64%
Goals46%54%
Total48.2%51.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FS Jelgava

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.24 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Unibet
Away2.25 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.67 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.21 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ William Hill
No2.40 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tukums = 1.27 (league 1.66), FS Jelgava = 1.13 (league 1.27)

FS Jelgava
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tukums 0 9.1% 10.3% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
1 11.5% 13.0% 7.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.3% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 3.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.2% · Draw 27.6% · Away win 32.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1