Serie A — Brazil
Thu, Oct 9 2025 • 00:00 • Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.67 (league 1.32) 1.33 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
60.5% 17.0% 16.9%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.7%
3 - 1
7.7%
2 - 0
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mirassol 0 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
1 4.9% 6.5% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
2 6.5% 8.7% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 5.8% 7.7% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 3.9% 5.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
5 2.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMirassolFluminense
Played55
Form33%67%
Attack46%62%
Defense38%77%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mirassol Fluminense
HATHAT
Played121426121325
Wins58%29%42%67%23%44%
Draws42%36%38%8%31%20%
Loses0%36%19%25%46%36%

Form: Mirassol: LDDWDDLWDWWDWWDWLDWWWDWLDL • Fluminense: LWWWDLWLDWWLLLLWDWLDLWWDW

League goals

Metric Mirassol Fluminense
HATHAT
GF total261642171633
GF avg2.21.11.61.41.21.3
GA total111728102131
GA avg0.91.21.10.81.61.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMirassolFluminense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%73%76%68%
1.542%27%48%36%
2.519%8%8%16%
3.58%0%0%4%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMirassolFluminense
HATHAT
Clean sheets347448
Failed to score033246

Penalties

MetricMirassolFluminense
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricMirassolFluminense
Wins33
Draws21
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-23-00-2
Biggest losses—3-00-24-2
Goals For5333
Goals Against2324

Model comparison

MetricMirassolFluminense
Form33%67%
Att43%57%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution68%32%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total42.8%57.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fluminense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.40 @ 10Bet
Draw3.11 @ 1xBet
Away3.50 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.43 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.61 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.03 @ Pinnacle
No1.83 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mirassol = 2.67 (league 1.32), Fluminense = 1.33 (league 0.81)

Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mirassol 0 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
1 4.9% 6.5% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
2 6.5% 8.7% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 5.8% 7.7% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 3.9% 5.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
5 2.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 60.5% · Draw 17.0% · Away win 16.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1