Sun, Aug 31 2025 • 21:30 • Estádio Manoel Barradas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.38 (league 1.32) 1.17 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.3% 26.5% 31.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
10.8%
0 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vitoria 0 7.8% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
1 10.8% 12.6% 7.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.4% 8.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVitoriaAtletico-MG
Played55
Form20%27%
Attack28%22%
Defense17%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)15 | 38 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Vitoria Atletico-MG
HATHAT
Played10112181119
Wins30%0%14%50%18%32%
Draws50%45%48%38%27%32%
Loses20%55%38%13%55%37%

Form: Vitoria: LLDWDDLWLLDDLDWDDDLDL • Atletico-MG: LDDLWDWWDDWWLLLWDLL

League goals

Metric Vitoria Atletico-MG
HATHAT
GF total1351811920
GF avg1.30.50.91.40.81.1
GA total12203281523
GA avg1.21.81.51.01.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVitoriaAtletico-MG
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%81%68%63%
1.529%43%32%47%
2.50%5%5%11%
3.50%5%0%0%
4.50%5%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVitoriaAtletico-MG
HATHAT
Clean sheets224437
Failed to score279246

Penalties

MetricVitoriaAtletico-MG
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricVitoriaAtletico-MG
Wins12
Draws32
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-12-00-1
Biggest losses1-28-01-32-0
Goals For2232
Goals Against2833

Model comparison

MetricVitoriaAtletico-MG
Form43%57%
Att56%44%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h62%38%
Goals56%44%
Total51.3%48.7%

Advice: Double chance : Vitoria or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.25 @ Bet365
Draw3.10 @ Unibet
Away2.60 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.60 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.55 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ Unibet
No1.83 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Vitoria = 1.38 (league 1.32), Atletico-MG = 1.17 (league 0.82)

Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vitoria 0 7.8% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
1 10.8% 12.6% 7.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.4% 8.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.3% · Draw 26.5% · Away win 31.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1