Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 20:30 • Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.47 (league 1.32) 0.59 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
75.5% 7.5% 3.1%
best score tips
3 - 0
12.1%
4 - 0
10.5%
2 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
Vasco DA Gama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Flamengo 0 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 6.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10.4% 6.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 12.1% 7.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 10.5% 6.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 7.3% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFlamengoVasco DA Gama
Played55
Form87%47%
Attack100%87%
Defense80%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)16 | 3.213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Flamengo Vasco DA Gama
HATHAT
Played121022111122
Wins75%60%68%27%27%27%
Draws25%20%23%36%9%23%
Loses0%20%9%36%64%50%

Form: Flamengo: DWWWDWLWDWWWLWWWDWWWDW • Vasco DA Gama: WLWLDLLLWLLWLDDLDWLLWD

League goals

Metric Flamengo Vasco DA Gama
HATHAT
GF total321547141832
GF avg2.71.52.11.31.61.5
GA total3710141933
GA avg0.30.70.51.31.71.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFlamengoVasco DA Gama
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%41%68%86%
1.555%5%41%50%
2.523%0%23%14%
3.518%0%5%0%
4.514%0%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFlamengoVasco DA Gama
HATHAT
Clean sheets9413213
Failed to score123437

Penalties

MetricFlamengoVasco DA Gama
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricFlamengoVasco DA Gama
Wins31
Draws12
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins8-01-33-00-6
Biggest losses2-10-23-0
Goals For8336
Goals Against1233

Model comparison

MetricFlamengoVasco DA Gama
Form65%35%
Att55%45%
Def75%25%
Poisson Distribution89%11%
H2h85%15%
Goals75%25%
Total74.0%26.0%

Advice: Combo Winner : Flamengo and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.40 @ Betano
Draw5.40 @ Unibet
Away10.50 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.91 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.08 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.32 @ Pinnacle
No1.65 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Flamengo = 3.47 (league 1.32), Vasco DA Gama = 0.59 (league 0.82)

Vasco DA Gama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Flamengo 0 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 6.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10.4% 6.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 12.1% 7.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 10.5% 6.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 7.3% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 75.5% · Draw 7.5% · Away win 3.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1