Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 00:00 • Allianz Parque
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.05 (league 1.32) 0.52 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
71.7% 18.3% 8.2%
best score tips
2 - 0
16.1%
1 - 0
15.8%
3 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
Fortaleza EC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Palmeiras 0 7.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 15.8% 8.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.1% 8.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.0% 5.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPalmeirasFortaleza EC
Played55
Form87%20%
Attack85%31%
Defense77%23%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Palmeiras Fortaleza EC
HATHAT
Played111021121022
Wins64%70%67%33%0%18%
Draws18%20%19%17%40%27%
Loses18%10%14%50%60%55%

Form: Palmeiras: DWWWWLWWWLLDWWWDWWWDW • Fortaleza EC: WDDLLDDWLLLLLDWLDLLLLW

League goals

Metric Palmeiras Fortaleza EC
HATHAT
GF total17153216622
GF avg1.51.51.51.30.61.0
GA total8917161834
GA avg0.70.90.81.31.81.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePalmeirasFortaleza EC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%62%59%73%
1.548%19%23%45%
2.514%0%9%18%
3.55%0%5%9%
4.50%0%5%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPalmeirasFortaleza EC
HATHAT
Clean sheets538426
Failed to score303549

Penalties

MetricPalmeirasFortaleza EC
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total52

Streaks

MetricPalmeirasFortaleza EC
Wins41
Draws12
Losses25

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-25-0
Biggest losses0-22-10-55-0
Goals For4251
Goals Against2255

Model comparison

MetricPalmeirasFortaleza EC
Form81%19%
Att73%27%
Def77%23%
Poisson Distribution82%18%
H2h62%38%
Goals50%50%
Total70.8%29.2%

Advice: Winner : Palmeiras

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.43 @ 188Bet
Draw4.72 @ Pinnacle
Away8.83 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Pinnacle
No1.73 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.92 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.99 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Palmeiras = 2.05 (league 1.32), Fortaleza EC = 0.52 (league 0.81)

Fortaleza EC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Palmeiras 0 7.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 15.8% 8.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.1% 8.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.0% 5.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 71.7% · Draw 18.3% · Away win 8.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1