Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 21:30 • Estádio São Januário
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.64 (league 1.32) 2.08 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.2% 18.7% 69.2%
best score tips
0 - 2
14.3%
0 - 1
13.7%
0 - 3
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Cruzeiro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vasco DA Gama 0 6.6% 13.7% 14.3% 9.9% 5.2% 2.2%
1 4.2% 8.7% 9.1% 6.3% 3.3% 1.4%
2 1.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4%
3 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVasco DA GamaCruzeiro
Played55
Form53%87%
Attack100%73%
Defense18%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Vasco DA Gama Cruzeiro
HATHAT
Played121224131124
Wins33%25%29%77%45%63%
Draws33%17%25%8%36%21%
Loses33%58%46%15%18%17%

Form: Vasco DA Gama: WLWLDLLLWLLWLDDLDWLLWDDW • Cruzeiro: WLDWLWWWDWWDWWWDLWLDWWWW

League goals

Metric Vasco DA Gama Cruzeiro
HATHAT
GF total171936251439
GF avg1.41.61.51.91.31.6
GA total15203510717
GA avg1.31.71.50.80.60.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVasco DA GamaCruzeiro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%88%79%54%
1.542%46%54%13%
2.525%13%17%4%
3.54%0%13%0%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVasco DA GamaCruzeiro
HATHAT
Clean sheets2135611
Failed to score437145

Penalties

MetricVasco DA GamaCruzeiro
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 33.33%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 66.67%
Total43

Streaks

MetricVasco DA GamaCruzeiro
Wins13
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-64-00-4
Biggest losses0-23-01-23-0
Goals For3644
Goals Against3323

Model comparison

MetricVasco DA GamaCruzeiro
Form38%62%
Att58%42%
Def31%69%
Poisson Distribution28%72%
H2h25%75%
Goals38%63%
Total36.3%63.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Cruzeiro

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.91 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.35 @ 188Bet
Away2.72 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.44 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ Pinnacle
No1.89 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Vasco DA Gama = 0.64 (league 1.32), Cruzeiro = 2.08 (league 0.81)

Cruzeiro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vasco DA Gama 0 6.6% 13.7% 14.3% 9.9% 5.2% 2.2%
1 4.2% 8.7% 9.1% 6.3% 3.3% 1.4%
2 1.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4%
3 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.2% · Draw 18.7% · Away win 69.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1