Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 14:00 • Arena do Grêmio
Match Finished
3 - 1
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.32) 0.39 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
53.2% 33.5% 13.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
24.7%
0 - 0
22.6%
2 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
Vitoria
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gremio 0 22.6% 8.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 24.7% 9.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.5% 5.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGremioVitoria
Played55
Form40%27%
Attack63%38%
Defense38%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 113 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gremio Vitoria
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins33%25%29%33%0%17%
Draws42%25%33%42%42%42%
Loses25%50%38%25%58%42%

Form: Gremio: WLLLDDWDLWWDLDLWLLWDDLWD • Vitoria: LLDWDDLWLLDDLDWDDDLDLWLL

League goals

Metric Gremio Vitoria
HATHAT
GF total10142414519
GF avg0.81.21.01.20.40.8
GA total102030132235
GA avg0.81.71.31.11.81.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGremioVitoria
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%83%54%79%
1.521%25%25%42%
2.58%8%0%4%
3.50%8%0%4%
4.50%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGremioVitoria
HATHAT
Clean sheets314325
Failed to score4373811

Penalties

MetricGremioVitoria
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total60

Streaks

MetricGremioVitoria
Wins21
Draws23
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-32-1
Biggest losses0-24-11-28-0
Goals For2322
Goals Against2428

Model comparison

MetricGremioVitoria
Form60%40%
Att63%38%
Def72%28%
Poisson Distribution75%25%
H2h85%15%
Goals80%20%
Total72.5%27.7%

Advice: Double chance : Gremio or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.85 @ Betano
Draw3.68 @ 1xBet
Away4.77 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.16 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.75 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gremio = 1.09 (league 1.32), Vitoria = 0.39 (league 0.81)

Vitoria
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gremio 0 22.6% 8.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 24.7% 9.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.5% 5.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.2% · Draw 33.5% · Away win 13.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1