Thu, Oct 2 2025 • 00:30 • Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.32) 1.90 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.6% 22.3% 50.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.1%
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 1
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Gremio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Santos 0 4.1% 7.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9%
1 5.3% 10.1% 9.6% 6.1% 2.9% 1.1%
2 3.4% 6.5% 6.2% 3.9% 1.9% 0.7%
3 1.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%
4 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSantosGremio
Played55
Form40%53%
Attack36%73%
Defense55%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Santos Gremio
HATHAT
Played111324131225
Wins36%23%29%38%25%32%
Draws27%23%25%38%25%32%
Loses36%54%46%23%50%36%

Form: Santos: LDLWLLLDLWLWWLLDWWLLDDWD • Gremio: WLLLDDWDLWWDLDLWLLWDDLWDW

League goals

Metric Santos Gremio
HATHAT
GF total111324131427
GF avg1.01.01.01.01.21.1
GA total142034112031
GA avg1.31.51.40.81.71.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSantosGremio
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%75%72%84%
1.529%46%24%24%
2.58%8%12%8%
3.50%4%0%8%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSantosGremio
HATHAT
Clean sheets516314
Failed to score459437

Penalties

MetricSantosGremio
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total36

Streaks

MetricSantosGremio
Wins22
Draws22
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-12-33-11-3
Biggest losses0-63-00-24-1
Goals For3333
Goals Against6324

Model comparison

MetricSantosGremio
Form43%57%
Att33%67%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total45.8%54.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Gremio

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.98 @ 188Bet
Draw3.65 @ 10Bet
Away5.18 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.28 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.75 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.06 @ Unibet
No1.83 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Santos = 1.29 (league 1.32), Gremio = 1.90 (league 0.82)

Gremio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Santos 0 4.1% 7.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9%
1 5.3% 10.1% 9.6% 6.1% 2.9% 1.1%
2 3.4% 6.5% 6.2% 3.9% 1.9% 0.7%
3 1.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%
4 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.6% · Draw 22.3% · Away win 50.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1