Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 21:30 • Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.28 (league 1.32) 0.77 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.3% 29.1% 22.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
16.5%
0 - 0
12.9%
1 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fluminense 0 12.9% 9.9% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 16.5% 12.7% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.5% 8.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 4.5% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFluminenseAtletico-MG
Played55
Form53%33%
Attack63%25%
Defense63%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 12 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fluminense Atletico-MG
HATHAT
Played111324111324
Wins64%23%42%45%15%29%
Draws9%31%21%45%23%33%
Loses27%46%38%9%62%38%

Form: Fluminense: LWWWDLWLDWWLLLLWDWLDLWWD • Atletico-MG: LDDLWDWWDDWWLLLWDLLLDLWD

League goals

Metric Fluminense Atletico-MG
HATHAT
GF total14163013922
GF avg1.31.21.31.20.70.9
GA total10213191726
GA avg0.91.61.30.81.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFluminenseAtletico-MG
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%71%63%63%
1.546%38%25%38%
2.54%17%4%8%
3.50%4%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFluminenseAtletico-MG
HATHAT
Clean sheets347639
Failed to score246369

Penalties

MetricFluminenseAtletico-MG
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricFluminenseAtletico-MG
Wins32
Draws12
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-22-00-1
Biggest losses0-24-21-32-0
Goals For2332
Goals Against2433

Model comparison

MetricFluminenseAtletico-MG
Form62%38%
Att71%29%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total58.0%42.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Fluminense or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.08 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Bet365
Away4.45 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.74 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.37 @ 188Bet
No1.67 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fluminense = 1.28 (league 1.32), Atletico-MG = 0.77 (league 0.82)

Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fluminense 0 12.9% 9.9% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 16.5% 12.7% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.5% 8.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 4.5% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.3% · Draw 29.1% · Away win 22.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1