Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 19:00 • MorumBIS
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.32) 1.38 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.3% 27.7% 49.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.3%
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
Palmeiras
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sao Paulo 0 11.1% 15.3% 10.5% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5%
1 9.1% 12.5% 8.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4%
2 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSao PauloPalmeiras
Played55
Form40%67%
Attack33%100%
Defense67%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.612 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sao Paulo Palmeiras
HATHAT
Played131326131124
Wins54%23%38%69%64%67%
Draws23%38%31%15%18%17%
Loses23%38%31%15%18%17%

Form: Sao Paulo: DDDDWDDLWLLLLDWWWWWDWLWLLW • Palmeiras: DWWWWLWWWLLDWWWDWWWDWWLW

League goals

Metric Sao Paulo Palmeiras
HATHAT
GF total161329241539
GF avg1.21.01.11.81.41.6
GA total10152591019
GA avg0.81.21.00.70.90.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSao PauloPalmeiras
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%65%83%63%
1.542%27%50%17%
2.54%4%21%0%
3.50%0%8%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSao PauloPalmeiras
HATHAT
Clean sheets639639
Failed to score459314

Penalties

MetricSao PauloPalmeiras
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total26

Streaks

MetricSao PauloPalmeiras
Wins54
Draws41
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-24-11-2
Biggest losses1-32-00-22-1
Goals For3242
Goals Against3222

Model comparison

MetricSao PauloPalmeiras
Form38%63%
Att20%80%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h15%85%
Goals20%80%
Total32.0%68.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Palmeiras

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.65 @ Betano
Draw3.05 @ Unibet
Away2.45 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.91 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.49 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.30 @ 188Bet
No1.67 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sao Paulo = 0.82 (league 1.32), Palmeiras = 1.38 (league 0.81)

Palmeiras
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sao Paulo 0 11.1% 15.3% 10.5% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5%
1 9.1% 12.5% 8.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4%
2 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.3% · Draw 27.7% · Away win 49.7%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1