Thu, Oct 16 2025 • 22:00 • Arena do Grêmio
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.91 (league 1.32) 0.98 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.1% 31.9% 36.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
15.1%
0 - 1
14.8%
1 - 0
13.7%
Score & goals probability table
Sao Paulo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gremio 0 15.1% 14.8% 7.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.7% 13.5% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGremioSao Paulo
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack57%36%
Defense57%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gremio Sao Paulo
HATHAT
Played131427141327
Wins38%21%30%50%23%37%
Draws38%29%33%21%38%30%
Loses23%50%37%29%38%33%

Form: Gremio: WLLLDDWDLWWDLDLWLLWDDLWDWDL • Sao Paulo: DDDDWDDLWLLLLDWWWWWDWLWLLWL

League goals

Metric Gremio Sao Paulo
HATHAT
GF total131528181331
GF avg1.01.11.01.31.01.1
GA total112233131528
GA avg0.81.61.20.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGremioSao Paulo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%85%67%67%
1.522%22%44%30%
2.511%7%4%7%
3.50%7%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGremioSao Paulo
HATHAT
Clean sheets314639
Failed to score448459

Penalties

MetricGremioSao Paulo
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total62

Streaks

MetricGremioSao Paulo
Wins25
Draws24
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-33-10-2
Biggest losses0-24-11-32-0
Goals For3332
Goals Against2432

Model comparison

MetricGremioSao Paulo
Form57%43%
Att62%38%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%62%
Total48.3%51.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Sao Paulo

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.60 @ Betfair
Draw3.13 @ 1xBet
Away2.59 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.70 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.22 @ Pinnacle
No1.70 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gremio = 0.91 (league 1.32), Sao Paulo = 0.98 (league 0.81)

Sao Paulo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gremio 0 15.1% 14.8% 7.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.7% 13.5% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.1% · Draw 31.9% · Away win 36.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1