Mon, Oct 20 2025 • 22:30 • Estádio São Januário
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.94 (league 1.32) 1.90 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.6% 21.2% 37.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
7.9%
2 - 1
7.7%
1 - 2
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vasco DA Gama 0 2.1% 4.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4%
1 4.2% 7.9% 7.5% 4.8% 2.3% 0.9%
2 4.0% 7.7% 7.3% 4.6% 2.2% 0.8%
3 2.6% 4.9% 4.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5%
4 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVasco DA GamaFluminense
Played55
Form80%67%
Attack100%100%
Defense22%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Vasco DA Gama Fluminense
HATHAT
Played141428131427
Wins43%29%36%69%21%44%
Draws29%14%21%8%29%19%
Loses29%57%43%23%50%37%

Form: Vasco DA Gama: WLWLDLLLWLLWLDDLDWLLWDDWWLWW • Fluminense: LWWWDLWLDWWLLLLWDWLDLWWDWLW

League goals

Metric Vasco DA Gama Fluminense
HATHAT
GF total232144181735
GF avg1.61.51.61.41.21.3
GA total182341102333
GA avg1.31.61.50.81.61.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVasco DA GamaFluminense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%82%78%67%
1.546%46%44%37%
2.525%18%7%15%
3.57%0%0%4%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVasco DA GamaFluminense
HATHAT
Clean sheets325549
Failed to score448246

Penalties

MetricVasco DA GamaFluminense
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total53

Streaks

MetricVasco DA GamaFluminense
Wins23
Draws21
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-63-00-2
Biggest losses0-23-00-24-2
Goals For4633
Goals Against3324

Model comparison

MetricVasco DA GamaFluminense
Form55%45%
Att55%45%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h29%71%
Goals45%55%
Total45.7%54.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fluminense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.00 @ Betano
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away2.66 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.46 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.60 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.09 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Vasco DA Gama = 1.94 (league 1.32), Fluminense = 1.90 (league 0.82)

Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vasco DA Gama 0 2.1% 4.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4%
1 4.2% 7.9% 7.5% 4.8% 2.3% 0.9%
2 4.0% 7.7% 7.3% 4.6% 2.2% 0.8%
3 2.6% 4.9% 4.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5%
4 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.6% · Draw 21.2% · Away win 37.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1