Serie A — Brazil
Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 21:30 • Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.99 (league 1.33) 0.96 (league 0.85)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
59.8% 21.1% 17.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
10.5%
2 - 0
10.4%
1 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
Sao Paulo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mirassol 0 5.3% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 10.5% 10.0% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.4% 9.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 6.9% 6.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMirassolSao Paulo
Played55
Form47%20%
Attack75%50%
Defense13%13%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mirassol Sao Paulo
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins64%29%46%50%21%36%
Draws36%36%36%21%36%29%
Loses0%36%18%29%43%36%

Form: Mirassol: LDDWDDLWDWWDWWDWLDWWWDWLDLWW • Sao Paulo: DDDDWDDLWLLLLDWWWWWDWLWLLWLL

League goals

Metric Mirassol Sao Paulo
HATHAT
GF total311647181331
GF avg2.21.11.71.30.91.1
GA total131730131730
GA avg0.91.21.10.91.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMirassolSao Paulo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%75%64%68%
1.546%25%43%32%
2.521%7%4%7%
3.57%0%0%0%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMirassolSao Paulo
HATHAT
Clean sheets347639
Failed to score0334610

Penalties

MetricMirassolSao Paulo
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricMirassolSao Paulo
Wins35
Draws24
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-23-10-2
Biggest losses—3-01-32-0
Goals For5332
Goals Against2332

Model comparison

MetricMirassolSao Paulo
Form70%30%
Att60%40%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h29%71%
Goals25%75%
Total50.2%49.8%

Advice: Double chance : Mirassol or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.38 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.26 @ Pinnacle
Away3.30 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.11 @ 188Bet
No1.94 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mirassol = 1.99 (league 1.33), Sao Paulo = 0.96 (league 0.85)

Sao Paulo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mirassol 0 5.3% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 10.5% 10.0% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.4% 9.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 6.9% 6.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.8% · Draw 21.1% · Away win 17.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1