Serie A — Brazil
Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 00:30 • Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.30) 1.08 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.9% 24.9% 25.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Bahia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sao Paulo 0 6.9% 7.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 11.0% 11.9% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.8% 9.5% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.7% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSao PauloBahia
Played55
Form20%60%
Attack57%100%
Defense0%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

68%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sao Paulo Bahia
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins50%20%34%73%21%48%
Draws21%33%28%20%29%24%
Loses29%47%38%7%50%28%

Form: Sao Paulo: DDDDWDDLWLLLLDWWWWWDWLWLLWLLL • Bahia: DDDLWWWLWLWWWDWDDWWLLDLWLWLWW

League goals

Metric Sao Paulo Bahia
HATHAT
GF total181331261440
GF avg1.30.91.11.71.01.4
GA total132033102232
GA avg0.91.31.10.71.61.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSao PauloBahia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%69%86%62%
1.541%34%34%28%
2.53%10%14%14%
3.50%0%3%3%
4.50%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSao PauloBahia
HATHAT
Clean sheets6398311
Failed to score4711044

Penalties

MetricSao PauloBahia
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricSao PauloBahia
Wins53
Draws43
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-24-00-3
Biggest losses1-33-01-25-1
Goals For3243
Goals Against3335

Model comparison

MetricSao PauloBahia
Form25%75%
Att33%67%
Def31%69%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h71%29%
Goals73%27%
Total48.7%51.3%

Advice: Double chance : Sao Paulo or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.04 @ Dafabet
Draw3.45 @ Unibet
Away4.25 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.37 @ Superbet
Under 2.51.67 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.13 @ 188Bet
No1.79 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sao Paulo = 1.60 (league 1.30), Bahia = 1.08 (league 0.84)

Bahia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sao Paulo 0 6.9% 7.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 11.0% 11.9% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.8% 9.5% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.7% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.9% · Draw 24.9% · Away win 25.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1