Serie A — Brazil
Sat, Nov 8 2025 • 19:00 • Ilha do Retiro
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.31) 1.08 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.7% 30.9% 39.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.0%
0 - 0
13.9%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sport Recife 0 13.9% 15.0% 8.1% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.4% 13.4% 7.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 5.6% 6.0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSport RecifeAtletico-MG
Played55
Form7%53%
Attack20%50%
Defense0%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sport Recife Atletico-MG
HATHAT
Played151631151631
Wins7%6%6%53%13%32%
Draws47%25%35%40%25%32%
Loses47%69%58%7%63%35%

Form: Sport Recife: DLLLLDLLLDLLLDDDWDLLDWLDDLDLLLL • Atletico-MG: LDDLWDWWDDWWLLLWDLLLDLWDLWDLWDW

League goals

Metric Sport Recife Atletico-MG
HATHAT
GF total1392221930
GF avg0.90.60.71.40.61.0
GA total232851112132
GA avg1.51.81.60.71.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSport RecifeAtletico-MG
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%84%61%61%
1.516%58%26%32%
2.50%19%10%10%
3.50%3%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSport RecifeAtletico-MG
HATHAT
Clean sheets3258412
Failed to score68143912

Penalties

MetricSport RecifeAtletico-MG
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricSport RecifeAtletico-MG
Wins12
Draws32
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-13-00-1
Biggest losses0-43-01-33-0
Goals For2232
Goals Against4333

Model comparison

MetricSport RecifeAtletico-MG
Form11%89%
Att29%71%
Def17%83%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h20%80%
Goals18%82%
Total23.5%76.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Atletico-MG and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.45 @ Unibet
Draw3.45 @ Unibet
Away2.39 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ 188Bet
No2.07 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Sport Recife = 0.90 (league 1.31), Atletico-MG = 1.08 (league 0.83)

Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sport Recife 0 13.9% 15.0% 8.1% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.4% 13.4% 7.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 5.6% 6.0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.7% · Draw 30.9% · Away win 39.3%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1