Serie B — Brazil
Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 00:30 • Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.14) 0.87 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.5% 35.9% 37.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.5%
0 - 1
18.6%
1 - 0
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
Criciuma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vila Nova 0 21.5% 18.6% 8.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.5% 12.5% 5.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
2 4.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVila NovaCriciuma
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack45%64%
Defense36%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Vila Nova Criciuma
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins50%20%34%60%36%48%
Draws29%27%28%13%36%24%
Loses21%53%38%27%29%28%

Form: Vila Nova: LWDWWWLWLLLLLWWDDWLLWWLDDDLDD • Criciuma: LLWDDLDLLWWWDLDWWWWLWDWWWDWWL

League goals

Metric Vila Nova Criciuma
HATHAT
GF total161329251338
GF avg1.10.91.01.70.91.3
GA total112031151025
GA avg0.81.31.11.00.70.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVila NovaCriciuma
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%69%83%55%
1.528%34%31%24%
2.53%3%10%3%
3.50%0%7%3%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVila NovaCriciuma
HATHAT
Clean sheets7297613
Failed to score369235

Penalties

MetricVila NovaCriciuma
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total52

Streaks

MetricVila NovaCriciuma
Wins34
Draws32
Losses52

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-34-00-2
Biggest losses0-32-02-42-1
Goals For2342
Goals Against3242

Model comparison

MetricVila NovaCriciuma
Form29%71%
Att42%58%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h29%71%
Goals25%75%
Total34.2%65.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Criciuma

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.75 @ Bet365
Draw3.05 @ 188Bet
Away3.45 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.89 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.44 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.29 @ 188Bet
No1.68 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Vila Nova = 0.67 (league 1.14), Criciuma = 0.87 (league 0.83)

Criciuma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vila Nova 0 21.5% 18.6% 8.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.5% 12.5% 5.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
2 4.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.5% · Draw 35.9% · Away win 37.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1