Thu, Oct 9 2025 • 00:30 • Estádio Raimundo Sampaio
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.47 (league 1.15) 0.96 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.5% 26.3% 24.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.9%
1 - 1
12.4%
2 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Vila Nova
0 1 2 3 4 5
America Mineiro 0 8.7% 8.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
1 12.9% 12.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.5% 9.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 4.7% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAmerica MineiroVila Nova
Played55
Form67%27%
Attack46%38%
Defense77%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric America Mineiro Vila Nova
HATHAT
Played151530151530
Wins47%20%33%47%20%33%
Draws27%13%20%33%27%30%
Loses27%67%47%20%53%37%

Form: America Mineiro: WLWWLLDLWLLWDWLLLLDLLDLWDDWLWW • Vila Nova: LWDWWWLWLLLLLWWDDWLLWWLDDDLDDD

League goals

Metric America Mineiro Vila Nova
HATHAT
GF total191332171330
GF avg1.30.91.11.10.91.0
GA total142236122032
GA avg0.91.51.20.81.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAmerica MineiroVila Nova
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%80%70%70%
1.533%30%27%33%
2.510%10%3%3%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAmerica MineiroVila Nova
HATHAT
Clean sheets426729
Failed to score3811369

Penalties

MetricAmerica MineiroVila Nova
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total55

Streaks

MetricAmerica MineiroVila Nova
Wins23
Draws23
Losses45

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-32-01-3
Biggest losses1-23-00-32-0
Goals For3323
Goals Against2332

Model comparison

MetricAmerica MineiroVila Nova
Form71%29%
Att55%45%
Def70%30%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h71%29%
Goals75%25%
Total67.0%33.0%

Advice: Double chance : America Mineiro or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.00 @ 188Bet
Draw3.25 @ Bet365
Away4.56 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.53 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.23 @ Pinnacle
No1.68 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): America Mineiro = 1.47 (league 1.15), Vila Nova = 0.96 (league 0.84)

Vila Nova
0 1 2 3 4 5
America Mineiro 0 8.7% 8.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
1 12.9% 12.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.5% 9.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 4.7% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.5% · Draw 26.3% · Away win 24.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1