Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 21:30 • Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.34 (league 1.15) 1.13 (league 0.85)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.3% 27.0% 31.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
11.3%
0 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Ferroviária
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vila Nova 0 8.4% 9.5% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
1 11.3% 12.8% 7.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.6% 8.6% 4.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 3.4% 3.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVila NovaFerroviária
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack27%47%
Defense73%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.89 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Vila Nova Ferroviária
HATHAT
Played161733171633
Wins50%18%33%24%25%24%
Draws31%29%30%47%38%42%
Loses19%53%36%29%38%33%

Form: Vila Nova: LWDWWWLWLLLLLWWDDWLLWWLDDDLDDDDWL • Ferroviária: DDWDLWDDLDWLWLLLLDDWWWDDLLDDWLLDD

League goals

Metric Vila Nova Ferroviária
HATHAT
GF total181432191938
GF avg1.10.81.01.11.21.2
GA total122234212344
GA avg0.81.31.01.21.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVila NovaFerroviária
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%70%76%79%
1.524%30%36%42%
2.53%3%3%9%
3.50%0%0%3%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVila NovaFerroviária
HATHAT
Clean sheets8210437
Failed to score3710358

Penalties

MetricVila NovaFerroviária
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total65

Streaks

MetricVila NovaFerroviária
Wins33
Draws42
Losses54

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-32-01-3
Biggest losses0-32-01-34-0
Goals For2323
Goals Against3234

Model comparison

MetricVila NovaFerroviária
Form55%45%
Att36%64%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h100%0%
Goals75%25%
Total58.2%41.8%

Advice: Double chance : Vila Nova or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.85 @ 188Bet
Draw3.45 @ Unibet
Away4.96 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.18 @ 188Bet
No1.73 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Vila Nova = 1.34 (league 1.15), Ferroviária = 1.13 (league 0.85)

Ferroviária
0 1 2 3 4 5
Vila Nova 0 8.4% 9.5% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
1 11.3% 12.8% 7.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.6% 8.6% 4.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 3.4% 3.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.3% · Draw 27.0% · Away win 31.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1