Thu, Oct 23 2025 • 15:00 • Raadi Roheline Jalgpallipark
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 2.06) 1.30 (league 1.73)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.1% 23.5% 28.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.8%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Nõmme Kalju II
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tartu Welco 0 4.8% 6.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
1 8.3% 10.8% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
2 7.3% 9.4% 6.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.2% 5.5% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTartu WelcoNõmme Kalju II
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack69%38%
Defense0%54%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tartu Welco Nõmme Kalju II
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins44%56%50%31%38%34%
Draws25%19%22%19%19%19%
Loses31%25%28%50%44%47%

Form: Tartu Welco: WDLWWDWWWWDWDWLLWWWLLWWLWLDLDDLW • Nõmme Kalju II: WLWLWLLLLLLLDLWWWLWLWDWDLDDWLLWD

League goals

Metric Tartu Welco Nõmme Kalju II
HATHAT
GF total293665232346
GF avg1.82.32.01.41.41.4
GA total252449363268
GA avg1.61.51.52.32.02.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTartu WelcoNõmme Kalju II
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%72%72%78%
1.559%41%47%59%
2.538%25%19%38%
3.59%9%3%22%
4.53%6%3%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTartu WelcoNõmme Kalju II
HATHAT
Clean sheets459347
Failed to score202549

Penalties

MetricTartu WelcoNõmme Kalju II
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total52

Streaks

MetricTartu WelcoNõmme Kalju II
Wins43
Draws22
Losses27

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-53-01-5
Biggest losses2-55-21-57-0
Goals For4535
Goals Against5557

Model comparison

MetricTartu WelcoNõmme Kalju II
Form42%58%
Att64%36%
Def32%68%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h80%20%
Goals87%13%
Total60.5%39.5%

Advice: Double chance : Tartu Welco or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.49 @ Unibet
Draw5.20 @ Superbet
Away6.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.33 @ Unibet
Under 2.53.60 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.46 @ Superbet
No2.75 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tartu Welco = 1.74 (league 2.06), Nõmme Kalju II = 1.30 (league 1.73)

Nõmme Kalju II
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tartu Welco 0 4.8% 6.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
1 8.3% 10.8% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
2 7.3% 9.4% 6.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.2% 5.5% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.1% · Draw 23.5% · Away win 28.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1