Primera C — Argentina
Fri, Sep 5 2025 • 18:30 • Estadio Gildo Francisco Ghersinich
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.15) 0.64 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.8% 31.0% 20.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
19.2%
0 - 0
16.3%
1 - 1
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
El Porvenir 0 16.3% 10.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.2% 12.2% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.3% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEl PorvenirLugano
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack56%44%
Defense67%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

58%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric El Porvenir Lugano
HATHAT
Played111122111122
Wins36%18%27%36%18%27%
Draws36%27%32%27%36%32%
Loses27%55%41%36%45%41%

Form: El Porvenir: WLWLWLLLLLLWDDLWDDDWDD • Lugano: WWDLWLLDLLWLDDWLLWDLDD

League goals

Metric El Porvenir Lugano
HATHAT
GF total10112110818
GF avg0.91.01.00.90.70.8
GA total91726101626
GA avg0.81.51.20.91.51.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEl PorvenirLugano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.559%64%59%68%
1.532%36%23%36%
2.55%14%0%14%
3.50%5%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEl PorvenirLugano
HATHAT
Clean sheets448617
Failed to score639459

Penalties

MetricEl PorvenirLugano
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricEl PorvenirLugano
Wins12
Draws32
Losses62

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-22-01-2
Biggest losses0-34-21-33-0
Goals For3222
Goals Against3433

Model comparison

MetricEl PorvenirLugano
Form54%46%
Att56%44%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h60%40%
Goals55%45%
Total57.7%42.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : El Porvenir or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.25 @ 10Bet
Draw2.95 @ Fonbet
Away3.55 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.45 @ Fonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.57 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): El Porvenir = 1.18 (league 1.15), Lugano = 0.64 (league 0.88)

Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
El Porvenir 0 16.3% 10.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.2% 12.2% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.3% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.8% · Draw 31.0% · Away win 20.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1