Fri, Sep 5 2025 • 18:45 • Gewiss Stadium
Match Finished
5 - 0
Expected Goals
2.24 (league 1.78) 2.04 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.2% 19.8% 34.5%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.2%
2 - 1
7.1%
1 - 2
6.4%
Score & goals probability table
Estonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Italy 0 1.4% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4%
1 3.1% 6.3% 6.4% 4.4% 2.2% 0.9%
2 3.5% 7.1% 7.2% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.6% 5.3% 5.4% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4%
5 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricItalyEstonia
Played24
Form50%25%
Attack12%29%
Defense82%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 15 | 1.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 1.58 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Italy Estonia
HATHAT
Played112224
Wins100%0%50%0%50%25%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%100%50%100%50%75%

Form: Italy: LW • Estonia: LWLL

League goals

Metric Italy Estonia
HATHAT
GF total202145
GF avg2.00.01.00.52.01.3
GA total033448
GA avg0.03.01.52.02.02.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineItalyEstonia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%50%75%100%
1.550%50%25%75%
2.50%50%25%25%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricItalyEstonia
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score011101

Penalties

MetricItalyEstonia
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricItalyEstonia
Wins01
Draws00
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-3
Biggest losses3-01-32-1
Goals For2013
Goals Against0332

Model comparison

MetricItalyEstonia
Form50%50%
Att29%71%
Def73%27%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total50.7%49.3%

Advice: Double chance : Italy or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.08 @ Fonbet
Draw18.00 @ Betfair
Away55.00 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.30 @ Fonbet
Under 2.54.07 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes3.00 @ Bet365
No1.42 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Italy = 2.24 (league 1.78), Estonia = 2.04 (league 1.47)

Estonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Italy 0 1.4% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4%
1 3.1% 6.3% 6.4% 4.4% 2.2% 0.9%
2 3.5% 7.1% 7.2% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.6% 5.3% 5.4% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4%
5 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.2% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 34.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1