Fri, Sep 5 2025 • 18:45 • Gewiss Stadium
Match Finished
5 - 0
Expected Goals
2.11 (league 1.90) 2.11 (league 1.42)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.9% 20.1% 37.9%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.3%
1 - 2
6.9%
2 - 1
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Estonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Italy 0 1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.1% 6.5% 6.9% 4.9% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.3% 6.9% 7.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1%
3 2.3% 4.9% 5.1% 3.6% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.2% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%
5 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricItalyEstonia
Played24
Form50%25%
Attack12%29%
Defense82%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 15 | 1.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 1.58 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Italy Estonia
HATHAT
Played112224
Wins100%0%50%0%50%25%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%100%50%100%50%75%

Form: Italy: LW • Estonia: LWLL

League goals

Metric Italy Estonia
HATHAT
GF total202145
GF avg2.00.01.00.52.01.3
GA total033448
GA avg0.03.01.52.02.02.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineItalyEstonia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%50%75%100%
1.550%50%25%75%
2.50%50%25%25%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricItalyEstonia
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score011101

Penalties

MetricItalyEstonia
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricItalyEstonia
Wins01
Draws00
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0——2-3
Biggest losses—3-01-32-1
Goals For2013
Goals Against0332

Model comparison

MetricItalyEstonia
Form50%50%
Att29%71%
Def73%27%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total50.7%49.3%

Advice: Double chance : Italy or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.08 @ Fonbet
Draw18.00 @ Betfair
Away55.00 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.30 @ Fonbet
Under 2.54.07 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes3.00 @ Bet365
No1.42 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Italy = 2.11 (league 1.90), Estonia = 2.11 (league 1.42)

Estonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Italy 0 1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.1% 6.5% 6.9% 4.9% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.3% 6.9% 7.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1%
3 2.3% 4.9% 5.1% 3.6% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.2% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%
5 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.9% · Draw 20.1% · Away win 37.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1