Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 18:45 • A. Le Coq Arena
Match Finished
1 - 3
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.78) 3.40 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.9% 10.5% 69.6%
best score tips
0 - 3
8.2%
1 - 3
8.0%
0 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Italy
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estonia 0 1.3% 4.3% 7.2% 8.2% 7.0% 4.7%
1 1.2% 4.2% 7.1% 8.0% 6.8% 4.6%
2 0.6% 2.1% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 2.3%
3 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstoniaItaly
Played54
Form20%75%
Attack28%67%
Defense28%61%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.67 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

60%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estonia Italy
HATHAT
Played235224
Wins0%33%20%100%50%75%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses100%67%80%0%50%25%

Form: Estonia: LWLLL • Italy: LWWW

League goals

Metric Estonia Italy
HATHAT
GF total1457512
GF avg0.51.31.03.52.53.0
GA total4913077
GA avg2.03.02.60.03.51.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstoniaItaly
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%100%75%50%
1.520%80%75%50%
2.520%40%50%50%
3.50%20%50%25%
4.50%20%50%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstoniaItaly
HATHAT
Clean sheets000202
Failed to score112011

Penalties

MetricEstoniaItaly
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricEstoniaItaly
Wins10
Draws00
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-35-04-5
Biggest losses1-35-03-0
Goals For1355
Goals Against3504

Model comparison

MetricEstoniaItaly
Form25%75%
Att29%71%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution22%78%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total27.8%72.3%

Advice: Combo Winner : Italy and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home47.00 @ 1xBet
Draw14.25 @ Pinnacle
Away1.10 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.34 @ Betano
Under 2.53.40 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes3.00 @ 188Bet
No1.47 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Estonia = 0.98 (league 1.78), Italy = 3.40 (league 1.47)

Italy
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estonia 0 1.3% 4.3% 7.2% 8.2% 7.0% 4.7%
1 1.2% 4.2% 7.1% 8.0% 6.8% 4.6%
2 0.6% 2.1% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 2.3%
3 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 6.9% · Draw 10.5% · Away win 69.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1