Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 18:00 • Estadio Eva Perón de Junín
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.25 (league 1.00) 1.08 (league 0.74)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.0% 28.0% 31.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
12.1%
0 - 1
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Velez Sarsfield
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sarmiento Junin 0 9.6% 10.5% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.1% 13.1% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.6% 8.2% 4.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.2% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSarmiento JuninVelez Sarsfield
Played55
Form60%53%
Attack29%57%
Defense86%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sarmiento Junin Velez Sarsfield
HATHAT
Played131427141428
Wins15%29%22%43%29%36%
Draws62%29%44%14%29%21%
Loses23%43%33%43%43%43%

Form: Sarmiento Junin: LDLDLWLDDDDDWLDDDDLWDLWWLLW • Velez Sarsfield: LLLDLLDLWWLLLWWLWDDLWWWDWWDL

League goals

Metric Sarmiento Junin Velez Sarsfield
HATHAT
GF total12820131124
GF avg0.90.60.70.90.80.9
GA total131730121931
GA avg1.01.21.10.91.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSarmiento JuninVelez Sarsfield
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%67%50%64%
1.519%30%29%32%
2.50%7%7%11%
3.50%4%0%4%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSarmiento JuninVelez Sarsfield
HATHAT
Clean sheets3695510
Failed to score57127714

Penalties

MetricSarmiento JuninVelez Sarsfield
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricSarmiento JuninVelez Sarsfield
Wins23
Draws52
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-13-00-2
Biggest losses0-25-00-24-1
Goals For2232
Goals Against2524

Model comparison

MetricSarmiento JuninVelez Sarsfield
Form53%47%
Att33%67%
Def75%25%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h38%62%
Goals43%57%
Total49.5%50.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Velez Sarsfield

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.70 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.90 @ 188Bet
Away2.46 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.41 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.37 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.60 @ Pinnacle
No1.55 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sarmiento Junin = 1.25 (league 1.00), Velez Sarsfield = 1.08 (league 0.74)

Velez Sarsfield
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sarmiento Junin 0 9.6% 10.5% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.1% 13.1% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.6% 8.2% 4.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.2% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.0% · Draw 28.0% · Away win 31.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1