Sun, Nov 16 2025 • 20:00 • Estadio José Amalfitani
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.00) 1.34 (league 0.74)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.4% 28.4% 53.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.7%
0 - 0
14.0%
0 - 2
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
River Plate
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velez Sarsfield 0 14.0% 18.7% 12.6% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5%
1 8.8% 11.8% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 2.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver Plate
Played55
Form27%20%
Attack33%20%
Defense53%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

55%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

53%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Velez Sarsfield River Plate
HATHAT
Played151631181533
Wins40%31%35%56%33%45%
Draws13%25%19%17%47%30%
Loses47%44%45%28%20%24%

Form: Velez Sarsfield: LLLDLLDLWWLLLWWLWDDLWWWDWWDLWLL • River Plate: DWDWDWWLWDDDDWWWWLWWDDWDWWLLLLWLL

League goals

Metric Velez Sarsfield River Plate
HATHAT
GF total131326281745
GF avg0.90.80.81.61.11.4
GA total132134161026
GA avg0.91.31.10.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVelez SarsfieldRiver Plate
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.548%65%70%55%
1.529%32%39%24%
2.56%10%18%0%
3.50%3%9%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver Plate
HATHAT
Clean sheets56117815
Failed to score88164610

Penalties

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver Plate
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver Plate
Wins34
Draws24
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-24-10-4
Biggest losses0-24-10-22-0
Goals For3244
Goals Against2422

Model comparison

MetricVelez SarsfieldRiver Plate
Form57%43%
Att63%38%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h38%62%
Goals33%67%
Total44.7%55.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or River Plate and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.50 @ 188Bet
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.38 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.75 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.52 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.31 @ 188Bet
No1.71 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Velez Sarsfield = 0.63 (league 1.00), River Plate = 1.34 (league 0.74)

River Plate
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velez Sarsfield 0 14.0% 18.7% 12.6% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5%
1 8.8% 11.8% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 2.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.4% · Draw 28.4% · Away win 53.9%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1