Serie A — Italy
Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 16:00 • Stadio Via del Mare
Match Finished
2 - 2
Expected Goals
0.40 (league 1.24) 1.50 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
9.7% 25.3% 64.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.3%
0 - 2
16.8%
0 - 0
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
Bologna
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lecce 0 14.8% 22.3% 16.8% 8.4% 3.2% 1.0%
1 6.0% 9.0% 6.8% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4%
2 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLecceBologna
Played44
Form8%50%
Attack14%21%
Defense43%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.53 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 23 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lecce Bologna
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins0%0%0%100%0%50%
Draws0%50%25%0%0%0%
Loses100%50%75%0%100%50%

Form: Lecce: DLLL • Bologna: LWLW

League goals

Metric Lecce Bologna
HATHAT
GF total112303
GF avg0.50.50.51.50.00.8
GA total448123
GA avg2.02.02.00.51.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLecceBologna
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%75%50%75%
1.50%75%25%0%
2.50%25%0%0%
3.50%25%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLecceBologna
HATHAT
Clean sheets011101
Failed to score112022

Penalties

MetricLecceBologna
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricLecceBologna
Wins01
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——2-1—
Biggest losses0-24-1—1-0
Goals For1120
Goals Against2411

Model comparison

MetricLecceBologna
Form14%86%
Att40%60%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h15%85%
Goals25%75%
Total24.2%75.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Bologna and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.80 @ 188Bet
Draw3.70 @ Pinnacle
Away1.85 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.67 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.21 @ 188Bet
No1.75 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lecce = 0.40 (league 1.24), Bologna = 1.50 (league 1.06)

Bologna
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lecce 0 14.8% 22.3% 16.8% 8.4% 3.2% 1.0%
1 6.0% 9.0% 6.8% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4%
2 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 9.7% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 64.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1