Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 18:45 • Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.41 (league 1.23) 2.36 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
4.8% 13.9% 77.9%
best score tips
0 - 2
17.5%
0 - 1
14.8%
0 - 3
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
Napoli
0 1 2 3 4 5
AC Milan 0 6.3% 14.8% 17.5% 13.8% 8.1% 3.8%
1 2.6% 6.0% 7.1% 5.6% 3.3% 1.6%
2 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAC MilanNapoli
Played44
Form75%100%
Attack50%64%
Defense86%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.89 | 2.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.53 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AC Milan Napoli
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins50%100%75%100%100%100%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses50%0%25%0%0%0%

Form: AC Milan: LWWW • Napoli: WWWW

League goals

Metric AC Milan Napoli
HATHAT
GF total257459
GF avg1.02.51.82.02.52.3
GA total202213
GA avg1.00.00.51.00.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAC MilanNapoli
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%25%100%50%
1.550%25%75%25%
2.525%0%50%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAC MilanNapoli
HATHAT
Clean sheets123112
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricAC MilanNapoli
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricAC MilanNapoli
Wins04
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-33-21-3
Biggest losses1-2
Goals For1333
Goals Against2021

Model comparison

MetricAC MilanNapoli
Form43%57%
Att44%56%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution15%85%
H2h38%62%
Goals42%58%
Total40.3%59.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Napoli

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.95 @ William Hill
Draw3.59 @ 1xBet
Away4.50 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.90 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AC Milan = 0.41 (league 1.23), Napoli = 2.36 (league 1.06)

Napoli
0 1 2 3 4 5
AC Milan 0 6.3% 14.8% 17.5% 13.8% 8.1% 3.8%
1 2.6% 6.0% 7.1% 5.6% 3.3% 1.6%
2 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 4.8% · Draw 13.9% · Away win 77.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1