Serie A — Italy
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:00 • Stadio Artemio Franchi
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.16 (league 1.22) 2.23 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
1.9% 12.8% 82.6%
best score tips
0 - 2
22.7%
0 - 1
20.4%
0 - 3
16.9%
Score & goals probability table
AS Roma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fiorentina 0 9.1% 20.4% 22.7% 16.9% 9.4% 4.2%
1 1.5% 3.3% 3.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.7%
2 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFiorentinaAS Roma
Played55
Form20%80%
Attack19%31%
Defense63%94%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.21 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fiorentina AS Roma
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins0%0%0%67%100%80%
Draws0%100%60%0%0%0%
Loses100%0%40%33%0%20%

Form: Fiorentina: DDLLD • AS Roma: WWLWW

League goals

Metric Fiorentina AS Roma
HATHAT
GF total213325
GF avg1.00.30.61.01.01.0
GA total516101
GA avg2.50.31.20.30.00.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFiorentinaAS Roma
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%60%80%20%
1.50%40%20%0%
2.50%20%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFiorentinaAS Roma
HATHAT
Clean sheets022224
Failed to score022101

Penalties

MetricFiorentinaAS Roma
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricFiorentinaAS Roma
Wins02
Draws20
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——2-00-1
Biggest losses1-3—0-1—
Goals For1121
Goals Against3110

Model comparison

MetricFiorentinaAS Roma
Form20%80%
Att38%63%
Def14%86%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h62%38%
Goals63%38%
Total39.4%61.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or AS Roma and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.20 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.40 @ 188Bet
Away2.52 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.86 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No2.02 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fiorentina = 0.16 (league 1.22), AS Roma = 2.23 (league 1.12)

AS Roma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fiorentina 0 9.1% 20.4% 22.7% 16.9% 9.4% 4.2%
1 1.5% 3.3% 3.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.7%
2 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 1.9% · Draw 12.8% · Away win 82.6%

vtt 2 , vtd1